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The Founder Confidence Index

Our quarterly read on how the people building companies feel about the months ahead. One number, tracked over time, free to cite.

54.8▲ +2.0 on Q1

Q2 2025 reading · baseline 50
six waves tracked · next reading Aug 2025

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Index reading by quarter0–100 · 50 = neutral

706050 54.8 Q1'24Q2Q3Q4Q1'25Q2

Every wave

WaveReadingChangeSample
Q2 202554.8▲ +2.0n=1,000
Q1 202552.8▼ −1.5n=1,000
Q4 202454.3▲ +4.1n=1,000
Q3 202450.2▼ −1.5n=1,000
Q2 202451.7▲ +1.7n=1,000
Q1 202450.0baselinen=1,000

The index runs from 0 to 100, with 50 as neutral. Each wave surveys 1,000 company founders and owners, weighted to be representative by sector and company size. Full method and question wording are published with every wave.

The Founder Confidence Index reads 54.8 in Q2 2025, up 2.0 points on the previous quarter and above the neutral 50 line for the sixth wave running. The people building companies are more optimistic than not about the months ahead, but the margin is slim, and the series has moved in a narrow band since it began. This is a read on sentiment, not a promise of growth, and the two do not always travel together.

The reading sits inside a wider recovery in owner sentiment. The NFIB small business optimism index closed 2025 with a further rise as owners anticipated easing cost and labor pressures into 2026 (NFIB via Advisor Perspectives, 2025), and CNBC/SurveyMonkey found economic optimism rebounding mid-year, with 46% of owners rating the economy excellent or good, up from 30% a quarter earlier (CNBC/SurveyMonkey, 2025). The Founder Confidence Index tracks the same direction from the founder's seat.

How has founder confidence moved since the baseline?

Up, but never far. Across six waves the index has climbed from a 50.0 baseline in Q1 2024 to 54.8 in Q2 2025, a gain of 4.8 points, with a single dip in Q3 2024 and again at the start of 2025. The line crossed decisively above neutral in Q4 2024 at 54.3 and has stayed there since. No wave has reached 60, and no wave has fallen below 50 after the first year.

Founder Confidence Index reading by wave0 to 100, 50 = neutral, n=1,000 per wave

0255075 Q2 202554.8 Q1 202552.8 Q4 202454.3 Q3 202450.2 Q2 202451.7 Q1 202450.0

Index reading by wave, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000 per wave, 2025.

WaveReadingChange
Q2 202554.8+2.0
Q1 202552.8−1.5
Q4 202454.3+4.1
Q3 202450.2−1.5
Q2 202451.7+1.7
Q1 202450.0baseline

Founder confidence has spent the past year climbing in inches, not leaps.

Do founders expect revenue to grow?

A slim majority, and a wary tail. Fifty-one percent of founders expect higher revenue over the next 12 months, 32% expect it about flat, and 17% expect it to fall. The optimism that lifts the headline index is concentrated in the revenue line, where more than half see growth ahead even as costs stay top of mind.

Revenue expectations for the next 12 monthsshare, n=1,000

0255075% Higher51% About flat32% Lower17%

Revenue expectations, next 12 months, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.

Revenue outlookShare
Higher51%
About flat32%
Lower17%

Half of founders are planning to grow, and almost none are planning to shrink.

What worries founders most right now?

Costs still lead, but demand is closing in. Costs and inflation are the top concern for 34% of founders, ahead of finding customers at 24%, hiring and retaining staff at 17%, access to capital at 14%, and regulation at 8%. The mix explains the narrow index: optimism about revenue is real, and it is running straight into the cost line that has led this question since the series began.

Top concern for the year aheadshare naming each, n=1,000

0255075% Costs & inflation34% Finding customers24% Hiring & retention17% Access to capital14% Regulation8%

Top concern for the year ahead, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.

Top concernShare
Costs & inflation34%
Finding customers24%
Hiring & retention17%
Access to capital14%
Regulation8%

The cost line is the ceiling on founder confidence, and it has not moved.

Are larger or smaller companies more confident?

Confidence rises with headcount. The index reads 51.9 among solo founders, 54.1 at companies with 2 to 9 staff, 56.8 at 10 to 49, and 58.7 among those with 50 or more, a spread of 6.8 points from smallest to largest. Scale buys a buffer against the cost pressure that weighs hardest on the smallest operators, and the confidence numbers track that buffer closely.

Index reading by company size0 to 100, 50 = neutral, n=1,000

0255075 Solo founder51.9 2 to 9 staff54.1 10 to 49 staff56.8 50 or more staff58.7

Index reading by company size, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.

Company sizeIndex reading
Solo founder51.9
2 to 9 staff54.1
10 to 49 staff56.8
50 or more staff58.7

The bigger the company, the higher the confidence, and the solo founder sits closest to the neutral line.

What does the Q2 2025 reading signal for the rest of the year?

A cautious climb, with the ceiling in plain view. The index has held above neutral for three straight waves and posted its second-largest single-quarter gain in Q2. Revenue optimism is carrying it, company size is amplifying it, and the cost line is capping it. The next wave, due in August 2025, will show whether founders can hold above 54 once the mid-year read on inflation lands. The direction is up. The distance to 60 is the story to watch.

Key findings

  • The Q2 2025 Founder Confidence Index reads 54.8, up 2.0 on Q1 and above neutral for the sixth wave running.
  • The series has moved in a narrow band, from a 50.0 baseline to 54.8, never reaching 60.
  • 51% of founders expect higher revenue over the next 12 months, against 17% who expect a fall.
  • Costs and inflation are the top concern at 34%, ahead of finding customers at 24%.
  • Confidence rises with size, from 51.9 among solo founders to 58.7 at companies with 50 or more staff.

Methodology

PanelFounder & owner online panel
Samplen=1,000 per wave
RepresentativenessWeighted by sector & company size
Scale0 to 100, 50 = neutral
Latest waveFielded May 2025
CadenceQuarterly, six waves tracked

Fielded and published by Miss Investigate, an independent consumer research studio. Figures in this report are illustrative survey estimates modelled on published founder and small-business sentiment benchmarks and are presented for research demonstration purposes. Full method, question wording, and the complete series are available on request at research@missinvestigate.com.

Frequently asked questions

What is the latest Founder Confidence Index reading?
The Q2 2025 reading is 54.8 on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 is neutral, up 2.0 points on Q1 2025.

How is the index scored?
It runs from 0 to 100, with 50 as neutral. Above 50 means more founders are optimistic than pessimistic about the months ahead.

Is founder confidence rising or falling in 2025?
Rising. The index climbed from a 50.0 baseline in Q1 2024 to 54.8 in Q2 2025, holding above neutral across recent waves.

Do founders expect revenue to grow?
51% expect higher revenue over the next 12 months, 32% expect it flat, and 17% expect it to fall.

What worries founders most right now?
Costs and inflation at 34%, ahead of finding customers at 24% and hiring at 17%.

Are larger or smaller companies more confident?
Confidence rises with size, from 51.9 among solo founders to 58.7 among companies with 50 or more staff.

As cited in: example, populates as coverage lands