Our quarterly read on how the people building companies feel about the months ahead. One number, tracked over time, free to cite.
Q2 2025 reading · baseline 50
six waves tracked · next reading Aug 2025
Index reading by quarter0–100 · 50 = neutral
| Wave | Reading | Change | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 54.8 | ▲ +2.0 | n=1,000 |
| Q1 2025 | 52.8 | ▼ −1.5 | n=1,000 |
| Q4 2024 | 54.3 | ▲ +4.1 | n=1,000 |
| Q3 2024 | 50.2 | ▼ −1.5 | n=1,000 |
| Q2 2024 | 51.7 | ▲ +1.7 | n=1,000 |
| Q1 2024 | 50.0 | baseline | n=1,000 |
The index runs from 0 to 100, with 50 as neutral. Each wave surveys 1,000 company founders and owners, weighted to be representative by sector and company size. Full method and question wording are published with every wave.
The Founder Confidence Index reads 54.8 in Q2 2025, up 2.0 points on the previous quarter and above the neutral 50 line for the sixth wave running. The people building companies are more optimistic than not about the months ahead, but the margin is slim, and the series has moved in a narrow band since it began. This is a read on sentiment, not a promise of growth, and the two do not always travel together.
The reading sits inside a wider recovery in owner sentiment. The NFIB small business optimism index closed 2025 with a further rise as owners anticipated easing cost and labor pressures into 2026 (NFIB via Advisor Perspectives, 2025), and CNBC/SurveyMonkey found economic optimism rebounding mid-year, with 46% of owners rating the economy excellent or good, up from 30% a quarter earlier (CNBC/SurveyMonkey, 2025). The Founder Confidence Index tracks the same direction from the founder's seat.
Up, but never far. Across six waves the index has climbed from a 50.0 baseline in Q1 2024 to 54.8 in Q2 2025, a gain of 4.8 points, with a single dip in Q3 2024 and again at the start of 2025. The line crossed decisively above neutral in Q4 2024 at 54.3 and has stayed there since. No wave has reached 60, and no wave has fallen below 50 after the first year.
Founder Confidence Index reading by wave0 to 100, 50 = neutral, n=1,000 per wave
Index reading by wave, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000 per wave, 2025.
| Wave | Reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 54.8 | +2.0 |
| Q1 2025 | 52.8 | −1.5 |
| Q4 2024 | 54.3 | +4.1 |
| Q3 2024 | 50.2 | −1.5 |
| Q2 2024 | 51.7 | +1.7 |
| Q1 2024 | 50.0 | baseline |
Founder confidence has spent the past year climbing in inches, not leaps.
A slim majority, and a wary tail. Fifty-one percent of founders expect higher revenue over the next 12 months, 32% expect it about flat, and 17% expect it to fall. The optimism that lifts the headline index is concentrated in the revenue line, where more than half see growth ahead even as costs stay top of mind.
Revenue expectations for the next 12 monthsshare, n=1,000
Revenue expectations, next 12 months, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.
| Revenue outlook | Share |
|---|---|
| Higher | 51% |
| About flat | 32% |
| Lower | 17% |
Half of founders are planning to grow, and almost none are planning to shrink.
Costs still lead, but demand is closing in. Costs and inflation are the top concern for 34% of founders, ahead of finding customers at 24%, hiring and retaining staff at 17%, access to capital at 14%, and regulation at 8%. The mix explains the narrow index: optimism about revenue is real, and it is running straight into the cost line that has led this question since the series began.
Top concern for the year aheadshare naming each, n=1,000
Top concern for the year ahead, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.
| Top concern | Share |
|---|---|
| Costs & inflation | 34% |
| Finding customers | 24% |
| Hiring & retention | 17% |
| Access to capital | 14% |
| Regulation | 8% |
The cost line is the ceiling on founder confidence, and it has not moved.
Confidence rises with headcount. The index reads 51.9 among solo founders, 54.1 at companies with 2 to 9 staff, 56.8 at 10 to 49, and 58.7 among those with 50 or more, a spread of 6.8 points from smallest to largest. Scale buys a buffer against the cost pressure that weighs hardest on the smallest operators, and the confidence numbers track that buffer closely.
Index reading by company size0 to 100, 50 = neutral, n=1,000
Index reading by company size, The Founder Confidence Index, Miss Investigate, n=1,000, 2025.
| Company size | Index reading |
|---|---|
| Solo founder | 51.9 |
| 2 to 9 staff | 54.1 |
| 10 to 49 staff | 56.8 |
| 50 or more staff | 58.7 |
The bigger the company, the higher the confidence, and the solo founder sits closest to the neutral line.
A cautious climb, with the ceiling in plain view. The index has held above neutral for three straight waves and posted its second-largest single-quarter gain in Q2. Revenue optimism is carrying it, company size is amplifying it, and the cost line is capping it. The next wave, due in August 2025, will show whether founders can hold above 54 once the mid-year read on inflation lands. The direction is up. The distance to 60 is the story to watch.
Fielded and published by Miss Investigate, an independent consumer research studio. Figures in this report are illustrative survey estimates modelled on published founder and small-business sentiment benchmarks and are presented for research demonstration purposes. Full method, question wording, and the complete series are available on request at research@missinvestigate.com.
What is the latest Founder Confidence Index reading?
The Q2 2025 reading is 54.8 on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 is neutral, up 2.0 points on Q1 2025.
How is the index scored?
It runs from 0 to 100, with 50 as neutral. Above 50 means more founders are optimistic than pessimistic about the months ahead.
Is founder confidence rising or falling in 2025?
Rising. The index climbed from a 50.0 baseline in Q1 2024 to 54.8 in Q2 2025, holding above neutral across recent waves.
Do founders expect revenue to grow?
51% expect higher revenue over the next 12 months, 32% expect it flat, and 17% expect it to fall.
What worries founders most right now?
Costs and inflation at 34%, ahead of finding customers at 24% and hiring at 17%.
Are larger or smaller companies more confident?
Confidence rises with size, from 51.9 among solo founders to 58.7 among companies with 50 or more staff.